Over and Over and Over Again Nfl

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The 2021 schedule is out, which means it's time to look at season win totals for every squad in the NFL.

Yes, lines accept been out at FOX Bet for a few weeks now. But the intricacies of the schedule should impact your wagers. Travel considerations matter, particularly for the coastal teams that log the most travel miles, as do route trips and curt weeks.

Allow's dig in with our get-go impressions (with all odds via FOX Bet).

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills: Over/nether 10.five wins

The Bills are a legit Super Basin contender, retained offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and play in a division with three teams wobbly at QB. I take a play on the over. Coach Sean McDermott is 4-0 to the over as a head motorbus, and his Bills won ix of 10 terminal year to close out the regular flavor, the only loss coming on Kyler Murray'south "Hail Mary" touchdown pass.

The only crusade for business: Was Josh Allen's incredible flavour (69% completions, 37 TDs, 10 INTs) an outlier, and is regression coming?

Pick: Over

Miami Dolphins: Over/under 8.5 wins

The Dolphins were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL terminal flavour. They were a top ten special teams unit and ranked third in turnover differential. They led the NFL in interceptions. If the defense force and special teams don't generate points, can 2nd-yr QB Tua Tagovailoa, who was benched twice?

Oh, and it'southward worth noting the Dolphins will have their third offensive coordinator in three seasons under Brian Flores. Strong lean to the nether.

Pick: Under

New England Patriots: Over/under 9.five wins

So many questions. Does Cam Newton start at QB? Why did the Patriots spend so much on gratuitous bureau when Bill Belichick never does? I have no read on this team. We're talking about a brand new Patriots squad with as many as nine new starters.

Pick: Under

New York Jets: Over/under half dozen.5 wins

New motorcoach, new QB, new offensive arrangement, new civilization. There's a ton of uncertainty about the Jets, and I haven't even gotten to their secondary problems. For now, it's a pass, merely equally summertime progresses, I will consider the over.

Pick: Pass or Over

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens: Over/under 11.5 wins

Difficult sectionalization with ii new starters on the right side of Lamar Jackson'south offensive line, and their top ii edge rushers are gone. Slight lean to the under, but not a wager for me. Before you run to fade Lamar Jackson, only remember that John Harbaugh is 8-iv-1 in his career to the season win full over.

Selection: Under

Cincinnati Bengals: Over/under half dozen.5 wins

At that place's then much to like about this offense nether Joe Couch, and remember, this team started last season on fire ATS, going six-2 before fading after the QB'south injury. A slight lean to the under because I nevertheless don't have confidence in Zac Taylor equally a coach, and the defense needs a major talent infusion.

Option: Nether

Cleveland Browns: Over/nether 9.5 wins

I of my stronger plays, and I like it up to ten.5 (with no juice!). Odell Beckham is healthy, the Browns have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and the defense leveled upwardly in the secondary and on the line. Roster-wise, the Browns have a strong case for meridian five in the league. The biggest question is how Baker Mayfield handles success, and the burden of playing for a huge money second contract. Starting with the Chiefs is never fun – just like last year, when they were smoked past Baltimore in Week 1.

Selection: Over

Pittsburgh Steelers: Over/under 8.5 wins

My heart and caput say under. Only the numbers say Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in Pittsburgh (14 seasons). They also say the Steelers play 10 teams that fabricated the playoffs last twelvemonth. And Ben Roethlisberger'due south numbers in the second half of the season were atrocious (x interceptions in seven games). Pass for at present, but if you demand more ammo to ponder the nether, they did go seven-2 in one-score games last year.

Pick: Pass or Under

AFC South

Houston Texans: Over/under 4.five wins

That's a very low number, but you must consider the Deshaun Watson situation. Betwixt his legal trouble and vowing he's not playing for the Texans again, this could be a historically bad team. The roster volition have yous scurrying to Google. Under or pass for me.

Choice: Pass or Under

Indianapolis Colts: Over/under 9.5 wins

Always-so-slight lean to the nether here. There's a lot to love about the Colts, from their secondary to their passenger vehicle to their young skill position players. Just there's a massive hole at left tackle. Relying on thirty-year former Eric Fisher to be the guy coming off an Achilles injury is a massive adventure. And he'll be protecting Carson Wentz, who led the league in sacks taken final yr because he holds the ball so long.

Selection: Under

Jacksonville Jaguars: Over/under half-dozen.five wins

I'chiliad drinking the Trevor Lawrence Kool-Assist, which was stirred by Urban Meyer. Give me the over. Requite me the long shot odds to win the weak AFC South. After going 1-half-dozen in 1-score games concluding year, I can run into that hands flipping. Reminder: Lawrence has never lost a regular-season football game in his life. Undefeated in high school and at Clemson. Merely no, they won't go 17-0 in his rookie year.

Pick: Over

Tennessee Titans: Over/under 9.5 wins

Even in a weak division, I'grand looking at major regression from the Titans, who will accept a new offensive coordinator, a worn-down Derrick Henry (led NFL in carries two years in a row), and they didn't replace a departed tight end or receiver. After going seven-3 in one-score games this yr, I'g not certain they'll get that fortunate again. I took the under.

Pick: Nether

AFC Due west

Denver Broncos: Over/nether 8.five wins

The Broncos were decimated past injuries last yr at the skill positions, but caput coach Vic Fangio survived for another flavor. I've already bet their win total over for 2021. The Broncos had an A+ offseason, securing bear on rookie RB Javonte Williams (led college football with 75 broken tackles in 2020) and CB Patrick Surtain, and they locked up CB Kyle Fuller in free agency. Bonus: If you lot bet the Broncos and they upgrade their weakest position (QB) by trading for Aaron Rodgers, you got a great number.

Pick: Over

Las Vegas Raiders: Over/under 7.5 wins

I could write a affiliate on why I don't like the Raiders this season, just I'll salve that for the midsummer gambling blueprint. From the offensive line questions, to the defense questions, to Jon Gruden being 19-29 in his first three seasons, I encounter no reasons for optimism. Nether or pass for me.

Pick: Pass or Under

Los Angeles Chargers: Over/under nine.5 wins

Had been hoping for a lower number, considering I am bullish on the Chargers this season. When you can upgrade a bad offensive line with an All-Pro centre and a left tackle in the first round, you've gotten better. Starting time-time head jitney Brandon Staley has my attention, given how much he improved the Rams defense final year. I'll take the over.

Choice: Over

Kansas City Chiefs: Over/under 12.5 wins

No play here, but I'd look at the under if annihilation. Aye, they went xiv-2, only it looks like they'll accept four new starters on the offensive line. After three straight years dominating the AFC, y'all wonder if they slog through the regular season.

Pick: Under

NFC E

Dallas Cowboys: Over/under 9.five wins

There's clearly a Cowboys "taxation" which is why this number is and so loftier. If you bet information technology, only know you're going to live and die with the wellness of a cratering offensive line and a horrible defence that Dan Quinn is trying to "coach upwardly."

Selection: Pass or Under

New York Giants: Over/under 7.v wins

QB is the key to every squad in the league, simply perhaps no signal-caller matters more to its squad's hopes in the NFC than Daniel Jones. He has been sacked 82 times in the concluding 27 games. He has 22 interceptions and 29 fumbles in that time span. Given the offseason spending, at that place'due south pressure level, and he'll face a tough Denver defense in Week 1. If you believe he can turn it effectually, accept the over. I'm passing.

Pick: Laissez passer or Over

Philadelphia Eagles: Over/nether 6.5 wins

New charabanc, second-year QB in Jalen Hurts, crumbling offensive line, poor defense – how do you make a instance for the over, even though this is i of the lowest numbers in the NFC? But if you're just betting the number, y'all kinda have to take the over. They should win 3 in the division, and the schedule is very manageable.

Pick: Over

Washington Football Team: Over/nether 8.5 wins

I want to take the over because this defense, which added William Jackson at corner and drafted promising Jamin Davis. Washington has the best pair of corners in the division. Merely when does Ryan Fitzpatrick turn into a pumpkin? He's 38 and historically has followed a skillful flavor with a shaky one.

Pick: Over

NFC North

Chicago Bears: Over/under 7.5 wins

I wasn't sure if 7.5 was the number of games Andy Dalton would start or the season win total. Non feeling this squad at all, whether information technology's Dalton or Justin Fields nether center. Under or pass. Open with the Rams on SNF and it volition be downhill from there.

Pick: Pass or Under

Detroit Lions: Over/under 5.5 wins

Perhaps the weakest collection of skill position players in the NFL. The Lions are two years away from being two years away. The division is shaky with the Aaron Rodgers uncertainty, or I'd really hammer the under.

Pick: Nether

Greenish Bay Packers: OFF THE BOARD

The Aaron Rodgers trade scenarios brand this tricky, but the nether is a stiff lean even with Rodgers in Lambeau. The schedule is savage, and the Packers are tied for the well-nigh games confronting 2020 playoff with 10.

Pick: Under whatsoever the number is

Minnesota Vikings: Over/nether viii.v wins

Is at that place a squad in the NFC fewer people are talking virtually than the Vikings? Sneaky over play for me. Mike Zimmer's too practiced of a motorcoach for back-to-dorsum clunkers. They never rebounded from terminal year'southward 0-iii start – all to eventual playoff teams – but the schedule early isn't as difficult.

Choice: Over

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons: Over/under 7.5 wins

Worth keeping an eye on, and not only to see what happens with Julio Jones. After going 2-8 in one-score games terminal year, they have a new double-decker in Arthur Smith. I'grand looking hard at the over.

Pick: Over

Carolina Panthers: Over/nether vii.5 wins

I'm a big Matt Rhule fan, and this team was competitive early in the season earlier Christian McCaffrey's injury hamstrung the offense. Sam Darnold is going to surprise some people. Consider the over.

Pick: Over

New Orleans Saints: Over/nether ix.5 wins

Curious how they hung this high of a number with Drew Brees having retired and New Orleans having to make some bacon cap concessions. And why exercise they have five games in prime time? Yes, they were 8-1 without Brees the last two years. I'll say it: I'thousand not a Jameis Winston laic.

Pick: Nether

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over/under xi.5 wins

If you squint, you can encounter a team that runs the table in the regular season. No Super Bowl winner has ever returned all 22 offensive and defensive starters. We'll encounter how they handle being the hunted. Obligatory "Tom Brady is one-time and no QB the age of 44 has e'er done anything expert in the NFL." The Goat turns 44 in August.

Pick: Pass or Over

NFC Westward

Arizona Cardinals: Over/nether 8.5 wins

One of my favorite NFC overs. Despite massive defensive injuries last yr, they still ranked tenth in DVOA. J.J. Watt will bring leadership to a immature locker room that struggled in the fourth quarter – by and large, because Kliff Kingsbury fabricated some curious decisions.

Pick: Over

Los Angeles Rams: Over/under 10.5 wins

Losing 4 defensive starters from the all-time unit in the league might be starting time past the addition of Matt Stafford, who should help this offense brand the jump to light speed. Schedule is arduous, as they face up eight playoff teams from a twelvemonth agone.

Pick: Under

San Francisco 49ers: Over/nether 10.five wins

Near mysterious team in the NFC. Jimmy Garoppolo is the starter all year … correct? The defense lost coordinator Robert Saleh, and DeMeco Ryans is a rookie DC. The talent's there, but you lot wonder what the offseason QB discussion did to the squad chemistry. Uncertainty = pass for me.

Choice: Pass or Nether

Seattle Seahawks: Over/under 9.v wins

Russell Wilson isn't happy. The Seahawks went 8-three in one-score games last year. Sure, Seattle has double-digit wins in eight of the last nine seasons, only the sectionalisation is loaded and frankly, I don't come across it in the trenches. Under or laissez passer.

Option: Laissez passer or Under

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Jason McIntyre is a Flim-flam Sports betting analyst, and he besides writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for Play tricks, "Coming Upwards Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Earlier arriving at FOX, he created the website The Large Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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Source: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2021-nfl-season-win-total-over-unders-for-all-32-teams-jason-mcintyre

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